Political News NOW!

“I think there’s no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control… This will depend on strong campaigns by Democrats. Indeed, there are four reasons why the House is up for grabs: 1) according to history, the GOP stands to pick up seats; 2) Republicans enjoy a significant enthusiasm advantage; 3) Democrats are losing the independent vote; and 4) much of the House battleground will play in white/rural districts, where Obama isn’t performing well. From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg*** House play: White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs apparently made the biggest political news over the weekend, when he suggested on “Meet the Press” that Republicans could win back the House in the fall. (Imagine if Gibbs had said the GOP did NOT have a chance; the chattering class would have criticized him for being in a bubble or being delusional.) The facts are the facts: The Cook Political Report identifies 64 Democratic-held seats as either “Lean” or “Toss-up” races, and Republicans would need to win a majority of them (39) to win control of the House. And again, I think we’ve got to take the issues to them.” Gibbs, though, was just stating the obvious.

*** The GOP’s advantages and disadvantages: But we also can list another four reasons why the GOP won’t win back the House: 1) Unlike in ’94, the Republican Party has a fav/unfav score that’s no better (and sometimes event worse) than the Dem Party’s; 2) Unlike in ’94, the GOP isn’t necessarily running on new ideas or even with many new faces; 3) the National Republican Congressional Committee has a HUGE financial disadvantage compared with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the RNC’s political/fundraising troubles won’t be able to make up the difference; and 4) winning 39 seats is a tall order. The GOP will need almost 10 more than that. One thing that’s truly amazing about this cycle, historically: The fact we’re headed for a third-straight cycle where more than 20 seats change hands. After all, when Democrats won back the House in 2006 — during the height of violence in Iraq and after Hurricane Katrina — they picked up 30 House seats.

So is the individual outreach. Simply put, Washington runs this White House right now; the White House doesn’t run Washington. Whether dealing with the media, the business community, Republicans, or Congress, this White House hasn’t gotten its message across. *** When Washington runs the White House: Turning our attention away from the midterms and to the Obama White House, we’ve come to this conclusion: This White House is simply not good at handling communication and politics. (Just check out what Dem Gov. Chris Gregoire said of the White House’s communication on immigration: “They described for me a list of things that they are doing to try and help on that border,” Ms. Gregoire said. The legislative achievements are there. “And I said, ‘The public doesn’t know that.’”) Why is this surprising? The last thing so many of us thought during the presidential campaign was that these guys would have difficulties controlling the message and managing their constituents. But what’s missing is a coherent message.

On Thursday, he heads to Michigan to once again talk about the economy. He attends White House meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday. Today, at 2:10 pm ET, he meets with President Leonel Fernandez of the Dominican Republic. *** Obama’s day and week: President Obama has a pretty light week, schedule-wise. However, First Lady Michelle Obama has a pretty busy day today, addressing the NAACP’s convention to talk about combating childhood obesity, and then heading to the Gulf to inspect the oil spill. And on Friday, the First Family travels to Maine for a weekend vacation.

And Vitter got worse news right before the filing deadline on Friday, when a credible Republican decided to challenge him in the GOP primary and when a Republican decided to run in the general as an independent. David Vitter hasn’t had a good last couple weeks — with all the scrutiny over a former aide who was accused of assaulting his girlfriend in ’08 (and this aide handled women’s issues). From the AP: “Chet Traylor, from Monroe, was the last candidate to register for a congressional election before the qualifying period ended Friday. 28… Also entering the Senate race was a state lawmaker from Plaquemines Parish [Ernest Wooton] who left the GOP and registered Friday as an independent… As an independent, Wooton will bypass the party primaries and directly enter the Nov. 2 general election.”. *** Vitter gets a primary challenger: GOP Sen. He’ll face off with Vitter in the Republican primary Aug.

Other states would get to hold their primaries and caucuses no earlier than March 6. Iowa will go Feb. *** The 2012 calendar: On Friday, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee set the dates for the “pre-window” primaries and caucuses in 2012. It’s expected that the RNC — and the real primary action will likely be on the GOP side, of course — will follow those dates. 14; Nevada will go Feb. Also at the DNC meeting, the Rules and Bylaws Committee ruled to penalize states that hold their contests earlier than they’re supposed to, and to reduce the influence of superdelegates in selecting the party’s presidential nominee. 18; and South Carolina will go Feb. 6; New Hampshire will go Feb. 28.

Each House incumbent race and to a large extent the Senate races as well will come around to one point–how did my representative treat my district during his most recent term?. While you’re looking at that chart go to tools/filter/IVR-Automated Phone and deselect Rasmussen. Also your conclusion that any election where a Democrat won by less than 14% is effectively a toss-up is pure conjecture. The same is true in any comparison of polling organizations. They’re also consistently involved in push polling. If you look here http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php you’ll see that Rasmussen is ALWAYS the outlier in a Conservative direction. You’ll ALWAYS see the numbers shift away from the Conservative position. You’ve already made your position suspect Roy, by declaring Rasmussen “easily the most accurate pollster”.

Both unafraid of the political bashing they will receive from both the right and the left. Barney Frank and President Obama come to mind. Both are willing to face the issues head-on and do their best to do the right thing. There are only a few politicians who have enough self-confidence to do the right thing.

I believe Democrats are afraid of unions, especially the current administration. They should be, its unions that fill their coffers every election cycle and are the most powerful lobbyists in the country. What help exactly has Congress given to main street? Main street aren’t the ones getting help from Congress, they are the ones paying for it. If Democrats are so afraid of Fox, why do they keep showing up on their network? If Fox was as bad as you claim, wouldn’t Democrats avoid them? I also disagree with your assessment of main street Americans. They don’t ignore their pocketbooks because they can’t afford to. The middle class realize that even if you tax the rich 100%, you still can’t pay for our enormous debt and they will be on the line for it. Fear is rampant in Washington on both sides. How are Republicans afraid of big oil and healthcare insurance companies? Afterall, it was Obama and Democrats who received the most campaign contributions from those industries in the last major election, not Republicans. I have to kindly disagree with some of your statements. Interesting post. Seems like the White House should be afraid of that gravy train, and from the all talk/no action against BP (They contributed more money to Obama than any other candidate) and their mandate that gives insurance companies 30 million more guaranteed clients, the White House is keeping their end of the bargain.

Related Stories